Trump's Iran options: "Token" nuclear enrichment to taking out Khamenei
· Axios
The Trump administration is prepared to consider a proposal that allows Iran "token" nuclear enrichment if it leaves no possible path to a bomb, a senior U.S. official told Axios.
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Why it matters: This suggests there could be an opening, if only a small one, between the red lines set by the U.S. and Iran for a deal to constrain Iran's nuclear capabilities and prevent war.
- But at the same time, Trump has been presented with military options that involve directly targeting the supreme leader.
Driving the news: U.S. officials say the bar for Iran's forthcoming nuclear proposal is very high because the plan would have to persuade the many skeptics inside the Trump administration and in the region.
- "President Trump will be ready to accept a deal that would be substantive and that he can sell politically at home. If the Iranians want to prevent an attack they should give us an offer we can't refuse. The Iranians keep missing the window. If they play games there won't be a lot of patience," the senior U.S. official said.
- Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Friday that an Iranian proposal would be finalized in the next two or three days, though U.S. and Israeli officials have told Axios that Trump could strike as soon as this weekend.
Between the lines: Some of Trump's advisers have counseled patience. They argue that as time passes and the U.S. military build-up grows, Trump's leverage will grow along with it.
- But even some of Trump's closest advisers admit they don't know what he will decide to do, or when.
What they're saying: "The president hasn't decided to strike yet. I know that because we haven't struck. He might never do it. He might wake up tomorrow and say, 'That's it,'" one senior Trump adviser said.
- The adviser said the Pentagon had presented Trump with numerous options.
- "They have something for every scenario. One scenario takes out the ayatollah and his son and the mullahs," the adviser said, referring to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his son Mojtaba, who is seen as a potential successor. "What the president chooses no one knows. I don't think he knows."
- A second source confirmed a plan to kill Khamenei and his son was floated to Trump several weeks ago.
- Another senior Trump adviser said: "Trump is keeping his options open. He could decide on an attack at any moment."
- "The media may continue to speculate on the President's thinking all they want, but only President Trump knows what he may or may not do," White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said.
State of play: The U.S. and Iranian public positions on enrichment seem incompatible, but comments from Araghchi and the senior U.S. official suggest there may still be some room for a deal.
- Iran isn't currently enriching uranium because the centrifuges in its nuclear facilities were largely destroyed by airstrikes last June. The U.S. and Israel say they would strike again if enrichment resumes.
- But Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has been unequivocal that Iran won't give up its right to enrichment, which the regime claims would only be for civilian purposes.
- Trump has said several times, including last week, that he does not want Iran to be able to enrich.
The intrigue: Araghchi claimed in an appearance on MS NOW's "Morning Joe" on Friday that the U.S. side did not ask Iran to agree to "zero enrichment" during talks on Tuesday in Geneva.
- He also denied that Iran had offered in the talks to temporarily suspend its enrichment program.
- "What we are now talking about is how to make sure that Iran's nuclear program, including enrichment, is peaceful and would remain peaceful forever," Araghchi said, adding that Iran would take "confidence-building measures" in return for sanctions relief from the U.S.
- After the Geneva talks, Trump's envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner asked Araghchi to produce a detailed proposal addressing all the U.S. concerns regarding Iran's nuclear program.
The other side: A senior U.S. official said Witkoff and Kushner told Araghchi that Trump's position was "zero enrichment" on Iranian soil.
- But the official said that if the proposal includes "small, token enrichment," and if the Iranians offer detailed proof that it poses no threat, the U.S. will study it.
- A source familiar with the talks told Axios that both Omani and Qatari mediators told Iran and the U.S. in recent days that any deal must enable both sides to claim victory and, if possible, also be something that Gulf countries and Israel can live with.
- Araghchi alluded to that in his interview on Friday. "It should be a win-win deal. This is the difficult part. It needs to accommodate both sides' interests and concerns."
The backdrop: With the region bracing for war, the U.S. official insisted the U.S. would wait for Iran's proposal before deciding how to proceed, and whether there will be another round of talks.
- Trump said on Friday that Iran "better negotiate a fair deal." He claimed 32,000 protesters had been killed, a number put forward by Iranian opposition groups that is much higher than most other estimates.
- "The people of Iran are very different than the leaders of Iran. It is a very sad situation… I feel very badly for the people of Iran. They lived in hell," Trump said in a press conference.
What's next: Araghchi told "Morning Joe" the Iranian draft proposal would be shared with the U.S. after final approval from the political leadership in Tehran.
- He said the plan will include "political commitments and technical measures" to ensure the Iranian nuclear program is only for peaceful purposes.
- The U.S. official stressed that any proposal must be "very detailed" and prove that the Iranian nuclear program will be "benign."
- "We will see what he gives us in writing. Based on that, we will see how serious they are. The ball is in their court," the official said.
Zoom in: Araghchi said Raphael Grossi, who heads the UN nuclear watchdog, is involved in the negotiations and had suggested "technical measures" to ensure that Iran's nuclear program can't "be diverted to non-peaceful purposes."
- Such "technical measures" could mean a return of UN inspectors to Iran with a robust monitoring mandate, and the removal or dilution of the 450kg of highly enriched uranium that was buried in Iran's nuclear facilities by U.S. and Israeli bombs.