March Madness bracket 2026: Upset predictions, sleepers, Final Four pick in Midwest Region
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March Madness bracket 2026: Upset predictions, sleepers, Final Four pick in Midwest Region originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
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Here is a can't-miss prediction for March Madness.
The Midwest Region will have most of the highest-scoring games of the tournament. No. 1 Michigan is one of six teams that rank in the top 10 in scoring offense in this region. The Wolverines are ninth at 87.9 points per game.
Who else is in the mix? No. 4 seed Alabama leads the nation at 91.7 points per game. No. 11 Miami (Ohio) – which finished unbeaten in the regular season – ranked second at 90.7 points per game. No. 8 Georgia (89.8 ppg.), No. 12 Akron (88.6 ppg.) and No. 9 Saint Louis (87.8 ppg.) also have elite scoring offenses.
No. 2 Iowa State – which ranked 12th in the nation in scoring defense at 65.1 points per game– represents the other style in play along with No. 3 Virginia, which made a run to the ACC tournament championship game. This is the SEC bracket, with Alabama, Georgia, No. 6 Tennessee and No. 7 Kentucky. It's possible the Wolverines would have to go through three SEC teams, and it's not even college football season yet.
There are more than enough storylines to sort out in a region where the Wolverines are expected to advance to the Final Four. Will the Wolverines deliver? A look at the Midwest Region.
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All-Midwest Region Team
F – Milan Momcilovic, Iowa State
F – Thijs De Ridder, Virginia
C –Aday Mara, Michigan
G – Yaxel Lendeborg, Michigan
G – Labaron Philon, Alabama
SN AWARDS: All-America team | Boozer Player of the Year | Lloyd Coach of the Year
Best Midwest Region first-round game
No. 7 Kentucky vs. No. 10 Santa Clara
Kentucky coach Mark Pope broke a six-year drought in 2024-25 by leading the Wildcats to Sweet 16. The Wildcats lost to Oakland in the first round in 2024 and Saint Peter's in 2022. Kentucky is talented enough to make an Elite Eight run, but the Broncos are no joke under long-time coach Herb Sendek, who was an assistant at Kentucky from 1989-93. Christian Hammond (15.8 ppg.) shoots 40% from 3-point range, and Santa Clara played Gonzaga tough in two regular-season meetings and the West Coast Conference tournament championship. Pope's tournament success will always be propped up against against former Kentucky coaches Rick Pitino and John Calipari, and this year is no exception. It's a tough first-round matchup. The 8-9 matchup between Georgia and St. Louis should be high level, too.
Silly seed, indeed
This argument could go for either No. 11 Miami (Ohio) – which became only the eighth team since seeding began in 1978-79 to go undefeated in the regular season – or No. 9 Saint Louis – which finished 28-5. We put so much weight on quadrants that it weighs down the success from conferences such as the MAC and the Atlantic 10.
These are high-level teams with top-10 scoring offenses.
Why is Miami in the First Four? Remember the Miami team that reached the Sweet 16 in 1998-99 with Wally Szczebriak and the forever-quotable coach Charlie Coles? They didn't win the MAC tournament – and they were a No. 10 seed. At least coach Travis Steele got this team in the tournament.
Saint Louis tracks more like a No. 7 seed with the team, but it is the same story. The Billikens lost in heart-breaking fashion in the Atlantic 10 tournament to Dayton and were pushed down a line as a result. No. 11 VCU needed to win the conference title to stay in. We get Robbie Avila and his many nicknames in the NCAA tournament once and for all in what should be a banger against No. 8 Georgia.
Would you rather watch Miami and St. Louis of the 10th or 11th best team from a power conference? That's not even a question.
SN EXPERT BRACKETS:DeCourcy (Arizona) | Bender (Michigan) | Iyer (Arizona) | Gay (UCLA women)
Upset special
No. 12 Akron over No. 5 Texas Tech
This is short-changing Texas Tech, who dropped its last three games and will be without star forward JT Toppin for the tournament. That was a tough loss to absorb. Akron won the Mid-American Conference and is a match for the profile of a dangerous No. 12 seed with coach John Groce. The Zips have made the tournament four of the last five years – and they took UCLA to the limit in 2022 in a 57-53 loss. Tavari Johnson (20.1 ppg.) is one of four seniors who averages double figures. Akron is 0-7 all time in NCAA tournament games, but this is the time to break through. The Zips might be the MAC team we are talking about in the second round.
HISTORY OF UPSETS BY SEED:
16 vs. 1 | 15 vs. 2 | 14 vs. 3 | 13 vs. 4 | 12 vs. 5
Best potential game
No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 4 Alabama
Dusty May and Nate Oats are the only coaches in this region who have led a team to the Final Four. May took Florida Atlantic to the Final Four in 2022-23. Oats led Alabama to the Final Four the following season. Oats also is among the names constantly mentioned as a potential replacement for Tom Izzo when he retires from Michigan State. Is this an early audition?
How about an awesome Sweet 16 game? Alabama can get up and down with guard Lebaron Philon, who averages 21.7 points per game. That's going to put pressure on Michigan point guard Elliot Cadeau to stay out of foul trouble. Between the teams, there are nine players that average more than 10 points per game. Michigan has been susceptible when teams slow them down. Alabama isn't going to do that.
Michigan guard Yaxel Lendeborg comes into focus. He led the Wolverines to a victory against Wisconsin in the Big Ten semifinals with a game-winning 3-pointer. The ball would be in his hands in the clutch here. The Big Ten-SEC vibes would be fun, and keep in mind the Wolverines have won eight of their last nine tournament games against SEC schools – the only loss coming in the Sweet 16 to Auburn last season. Oats is 2-0 against the Big Ten in the NCAA tournament, and both of those wins were against Maryland. This could be the best game of the tournament.
MORE: Elliot Cadeau has been a perfect fit at Michigan
Sleeper team
Virginia. Can a No. 3 be a sleeper? In a bracket that features Michigan, Iowa State and is composed of 25% SEC teams, someone is going to get lost in the headlines. Virginia made a run to the ACC championship game and they're only two losses since Jan. 27 are to Duke. The Cavaliers might be underdogs in the second round against Tennessee depending on how the Vols look in the first round with forward Nate Ament, who averages 17.5 points per game. The Cavaliers are a sleeper from the standpoint they will not be a popular Final Four pick. Ryan Odom is one of the best coaches in this region. Do not underestimate them.
MORE REGION PREVIEWS: East | West | South
Midwest Region Final Four pick
There is more doubt around Michigan with the loss of guard LJ Cason, a backup point who added to the Wolverines' depth before suffering an ACL injury against Illinois on Feb. 27. Michigan is 4-1 since, but they won those games by an average of 5.8 points per game.
Is that cause for over-reaction? Michigan did beat Iowa, Michigan State, Ohio State and Wisconsin – all tournament teams. The loss to Purdue was more about getting beat inside and losing the tempo battle. In that regard, a potential Elite Eight matchup against Iowa State and Milan Momcilovic – who hits 49.6% from 3-point range – could be problematic.
Still, Michigan has the size with Morez Johnson and Aday Mara to win on that stage if it controls the turnovers. Michigan will be good enough to win that game, and we think May gets this team to the Final Four.